Political predictions for 2018, sort of

Political predictions for 2018, sort of

“There’s a saying that all predictions turn out to be either lucky or wrong.” With those words, just over 12 months ago, I began a blog post for this site which looked forward to 2017 and committed forever to the internet some reluctant thoughts about what the year might bring in the world of politics…

More like a holding statement than a Budget one

In keeping with his “Spreadsheet Phil” persona, Philip Hammond’s Budget today was mostly boring. Many of the announcements had been expected, due to a tightly controlled drip-feed to the media over the last week or so.

Budget 2017

Correctly predicting what’s going to be in the Budget is akin to completing the football pools or picking the lottery numbers, given the variables and levers that a Chancellor has to pull at any one time.

Government consultation on the economy presents opportunity for businesses to shape policy after Brexit

There was much focus on the Supreme Court last week, where judges upheld a ruling that MPs must be given a vote on Britain leaving the European Union. The result was that parliament remains sovereign.

May confirms break from single market and customs union

Theresa May has set out her vision for a “clean Brexit” and dismissed any prospect of a deal which would allow the UK to hang on to some aspects of EU membership.

Political predictions for 2017

There’s a saying that all predictions turn out to be either lucky or wrong. And there’s another one which says anyone who claims to know the future must, by definition, be either a fool or a charlatan. Nonetheless, the appetite for political forecasts is a thirsty one, so let’s take a look at the year ahead and hope I prove to be a lucky fool.

Autumn Statement round-up

Although it was Philip Hammond’s first Autumn Statement, three spectres could be felt in the background: one of the past, one of the present(ish) and one of the future.

A Tale of Two Parties: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”

In the last fortnight, two very different party conferences have occurred; Labour’s in Liverpool and the Conservative’s in Birmingham. For the most part, Conservative attendees – finding themselves in a majority government, with an exit from the EU in the offing and a Prime Minister channelling a bit of their heroine, Mrs Thatcher – were by far the happier.

Post-truth politics is taking over, except in the places where it isn’t

George Orwell famously wrote that in a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. Except, of course, he never wrote anything of the sort.

Brexit and chill

Search for Brexit on Google and you can expect 165,000,000 (and counting) hits in just 0.33 seconds which is some achievement for a term that was first coined in June 2012, according to the online MacMillan Dictionary…

Will a post-EU Britain still have access to the single market?

It depends who you talk to. Boris Johnson wrote in his Daily Telegraph column on Monday that there will be continued access. By contrast Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, has said there will not, as has Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary. This is a matter that will be absolutely key to the exit…

What’s all this talk about “Article 50”?

The referendum result is not legally-binding. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is the instrument which exists in law to allow for countries to leave the EU. But until it is invoked – until a prime minster presses the “red button” – Britain’s relationship with the bloc remains the same. Once it is pressed, the…